How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle by Ray Dalio

A comprehensive examination of the ripple effect debt has on a nation, how it can recover and who is affected.

“This book is a gift to humanity....Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity.” —Henry M. Paulson Jr.

“An invaluable resource for policymakers, investors, and citizens.” —Lawrence H. Summers

An urgent warning about the American economy from Ray Dalio, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles.

Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke—and what would that look like?

For decades, politicians, policymakers, and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010–12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the “Big Debt Cycle.” Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors, and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio’s model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan, and China face today.

How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces—political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods, and pandemics), and technological (most importantly, AI)—that together are causing what Dalio calls the “Overall Big Cycle” changes in the world order. By reading this book, you will improve your understanding of what’s happening now and what to do about it.